Without migration, eastern Germany to lose many workers

Without immigration, the working-age population in the Germany’s eastern states will shrink considerably, according to calculations by a leading economic research institute released on Friday.

The German Economic Institute (IW) estimated that by 2045 more than a fifth, or 22.4%, of the potential workforce would be lost without immigration. The figure for Germany as a whole stands at 17.4%. People aged between 15 and 66 are considered to be of working age.

According to the IW, around 7.7 million people of working age currently live in eastern Germany. Without immigration, that number would fall to around 6 million, the economic research institute said.

The states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt would be particularly severely affected.

The findings come ahead of elections next month in both states, in which the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to achieve record gains.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the party could even win an unprecedented absolute majority, allowing it to enter a state government for the first time.

Worst affected sectors

“If a region is massively short of workers, the economy can no longer provide for the population,” the IW researchers explained.

This would be felt especially in professions that are difficult to automate, such as care workers, hairdressers, craftspeople and doctors, they said.

The demographic worst-case scenario would be the occurrence of a new wave of emigration, like that of the 1990s, as a result of declining attractiveness of the eastern German states, the IW said.

“This threatens a vicious circle of fewer workers, less economic strength, lower attractiveness for younger people and even more departures,” it noted.