UFC 329 fight card predictions: Expert picks for Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway
Conor McGregor’s return is just one day away. The UFC’s biggest star steps back into the Octagon to face Max Holloway in the welterweight main event of the UFC 329 fight card on Saturday in Las Vegas.
McGregor has been out of action for five years, last fighting in 2021, when he suffered a broken leg in his trilogy match with Dustin Poirier. His return sees him face Holloway, whom he defeated at featherweight in 2013 before either man ascended to the championship heights that defined their careers.
The co-main event has the potential to be the most exciting fight on the card when Paddy Pimblett and Benoit Saint Denis meet in a huge lightweight bout. Pimblett is coming off a January loss to Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight championship, while Saint Denis has been red-hot of late and enters Saturday on a four-fight winning streak.
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Also on Saturday night, bantamweight stalwart Cory Sandhagen looks to turn away a rising contender in Mario Bautista. Another divisional mainstay looks to do the same at flyweight when Brandon Royval welcomes newcomer Lone’er Kavanagh. And opening the main card is a pair of lightweight brawlers looking to earn some performance bonuses when Terrance McKinney takes on King Green.
With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities that you can consider before hitting the sportsbooks.
“The Notorious” Conor McGregor — career in focus
UFC 329 press conference: Conor McGregor, Max Holloway get physical during first face off
Shakiel Mahjouri
UFC 329 fight card, odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (Odds as of July 10)
- Max Holloway -225 vs. Conor McGregor +185, welterweights
- Benoit Saint Denis -148 vs. Paddy Pimblett +130, lightweights
- Cory Sandhagen -130 vs. Mario Bautista +110, bantamweights
- Lone’er Kavanagh -218 vs. Brandon Royval +180, flyweights
- Terrance McKinney -130 vs. King Green +110, lightweights
- Robert Whittaker -125 vs. Nikita Krylov -105, light heavyweights
- Gable Steveson -1800 vs. Elisha Ellison +1000, heavyweights
- Adrian Yanez -425 vs. Cody Garbrandt +330, bantamweights
- Luke Riley -265 vs. Kai Kamaka III +215, featherweights
- Wang Cong -122 vs. Tracy Cortez +102, women’s flyweights
- Damian Pinas -258 vs. Cesar Almeida +210, middleweights
- Farid Basharat -600 vs. John Garza +440, bantamweights
- Ryan Gandra -135 vs. Zachary Reese +114, middleweights
- Alessandro Cortez -230 vs. Cody Durden +190, flyweights
UFC 329 predictions, picks
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card from Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Wise.
| McGregor vs. Holloway | HollowayTKO2 | Holloway UD | Holloway KO3 | McGregor TKO2 | Holloway TKO3 |
| Pimblett vs. Saint Denis | Saint Denis UD | Pimblett TKO3 | Pimblett SD | Pimblett UD | Saint Denis UD |
| Sandhagen vs. Bautista | Sandhagen UD | Bautista UD | Sandhagen UD | Sandhagen UD | Sandhagen SUB2 |
| Kavanagh vs. Royval | Kavanagh UD | Kavanagh UD | Kavanagh UD | Royval UD | Kavanagh UD |
| Green vs. McKinney | McKinney SUB2 | McKinney Sub1 | Green KO1 | Green TKO2 | McKinney KO1 |
| Records to date | 19-13 | 18-14 | 21-11 | 19-13 | 15-17 |
Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway predictions
Campbell: Five years removed from his last fight and just days shy of his 38th birthday, McGregor has a lot of questions to answer in this return. That’s not even taking into account the lingering worries about how the left leg that he broke in his 2021 trilogy loss to Dustin Poirier will respond. At 34, Holloway is still too close to his prime following wins in recent years over Dustin Poirier and current lightweight king Justin Gaethje. And the longer this fight goes as Holloway pushes the pace with his high-volume offense, the greater the odds of a McGregor cardio-based implosion.
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Brookhouse: McGregor will be dangerous early, he does still have power and knows how to strike. That said, as long as Holloway exercises a bit of caution in the opening frame, he should be able to take the fight over more and more as the fight ticks by. McGregor’s cardio is an issue, and the assumption is that Holloway will still have something resembling his standard cardio in his first fight at welterweight. Holloway simply brings too much pressure for me to trust that McGregor can keep up. I don’t know that Holloway will have power at 170, but he should win this fight.
Mahjouri: There are unusual variables at play here. McGregor returning from five years away. Holloway swelling up to 170 pounds for the first time. Overall, the circumstances favor Holloway. “Blessed” has the activity, stamina and volume to pick apart most fighters across 25 minutes. McGregor’s best chance is to bully Holloway in pursuit of a first or second-round finish. The fight will slip away from McGregor with every tick of the clock. Expect Holloway to fold a fatigued McGregor within 15 minutes.
Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis predictions
Campbell: Pimblett deserves respect for accepting such a dangerous fight against the streaking Saint Denis just six months removed from an all-action loss to Justin Gaethje in their interim lightweight title bout. At 31, Pimblett is doubling down on his want to remain relevant in the overall title picture. But nothing comes easy against this version of BSD, who can handle himself on the ground and is fresh off of four straight stoppage wins against exceedingly tough competition. Pimblett will be competitive and durable enough not to get finished but Saint Denis has the bigger weapons in this fight and should get the nod when 15 minutes of fighting are complete.
Brookhouse: Saint Denis is on a tremendous run, but he’s running into someone in Pimblett who has shown himself to be incredibly durable, and that could be trouble for Saint Denis, whose gas tank is a little unreliable. This is really a tremendous fight and a big risk for Pimblett, who took quite a beating from Gaethje in January. My expectation is that Saint Denis controls the opening round, but Pimblett’s ability to absorb punishment while continuing to come forward starts to wear on Saint Denis. I like Pimblett’s chances of winning a narrow decision.
Mahjouri: The co-main event is excellent matchmaking, pitting two rising lightweight stars against each other. Both men possess knockout and submission prowess, and defensive lapses that make for fun fights. Saint Denis’ bullishness and Pimblett’s defensive laziness can get both men in trouble. Saint Denis has made strides training with middleweight contender Nassourdine Imavov, while Ilia Topuria’s loss to lightweight champion Justin Gaethje forces us to re-examine Pimblett’s loss to the champ. Pimblett has a great chin, giving me just enough belief that he can outthink and outpoint his bullish foe.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista predictions
Campbell: This is a very evenly matched fight pairing two of the five best bantamweights on the planet and should be contested at a very high pace. At 34, Sandhagen will still have plenty of motivation to keep pace in the title picture just nine months removed from going the distance in a loss to then-champion Merab Dvalishvili. And Bautista has won nine out of his last 10 overall and was competitive in his loss last October to Umar Nurmagomedov. But Sandhagen’s ground game should be able to cancel out the grappling prowess and submission threat of Bautista. And on the feet, Sandhagen still has too many different looks and a variety of striking attacks to make Bautista have to chase. Look for Sandhagen to hold serve in a close fight.
Brookhouse: Bautista has a path to win by turning this into a grappling contest. He averages about two takedowns per 15 minutes and Sandhagen does give up takedowns. While Sandhagen is good at surviving on the ground and working back to his feet, in a three-round fight, I think Bautista is good enough on the feet to be able to safely engage before just outworking Sandhagen with takedowns to edge out the win.
Mahjouri: Sandhagen and Bautista meet seven years after their first fight. On that night, Sandhagen threw everything but the kitchen sink at Bautista. “The Sandman” uses stance switches and a deep bag of dynamic attacks, knocking down Bautista with a flying knee before submitting him with an armbar. Expect a closer fight this time. Both men have refined their games substantially without revolutionizing their approaches. Sandhagen is still a free thinker. Bautista excels with the fundamentals. Bautista won’t crumble under the pressure again, but his predictability makes Sandhagen the rightful favorite. Sandhagen by unanimous decision.
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