Wiarton Willie predicts early spring, but Fred, Sam and Lucy the Lobster disagree on Groundhog Day

Wiarton Willie has predicted an early spring after he did not see his shadow on Sunday morning on Groundhog Day.

WIllie made the prediction to chants of “wake up, Willie” at 8:09 a.m. on Sunday morning in Bluewater Park in Wiarton, Ont., located 220 kilometres northwest of Toronto. 

But his prediction doesn’t match those of other weather-prognosticating animals:

• Shubenacadie Sam who lives at the Shubenacadie Wildlife Park in Nova Scotia saw his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter.
• Lucy the Lobster in Barrington, N.S., saw her shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter.
• Fred la marmotte in Quebec predicted six more weeks of winter.
• Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania also predicted six more weeks of winter.

Wiarton, Ont., is a town of about 1,900 people located on the Bruce Peninsula. Every year, it holds an annual festival that kicks off with a pancake breakfast and fireworks at 7 a.m. It also celebrates with a weekend-long event that included skating with the Owen Sound Attack hockey team, a curling bonspiel, a chili cook-off, skating, a darts tournament and more.

This year’s festival went on despite the region seeing a large amount of snow over the past week.

Town of South Bruce Peninsula Mayor Jay Kirkland said the roads are clear after the “old fashioned snow event” the experienced this week and they were ready for people to drive into town for the main event Sunday morning.

“I put the oath of office on my neck and that allows me to be able to talk to the groundhog and hopefully we hear that it’s an early spring this year,” Kirkland told CBC Kitchener-Waterloo’s The Morning Edition with host Craig Norris on Friday.

“We’ll keep our fingers crossed, but we still have to let Willie decide,” Kirkland added, saying he didn’t want to guess whether or not Willie would see his shadow. “I’m not the weather guy. I just helped run the town.”

History of Groundhog Day

Groundhog Day was first marked in the U.S. with a prediction by Punxsutawney Phil in 1886, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s website reports. The first official trek to Gobbler’s Knob was made on Feb. 2, 1887.

Punxsutawney Phil is perhaps the world’s best-known groundhog — he’s been predicting the weather the longest and he’s featured in the movie Groundhog Day starring Bill Murray.

The Groundhog Day tradition in Wiarton dates back to 1956. The Town of South Bruce Peninsula says it was started by a “spirited individual” named Mac McKenzie that had “a desire to shake off the winter blues and bring some warmth to the community.”

The municipality’s website says McKenzie invited friends out for a night on the town to mark Groundhog Day and sent out a joke news release ahead of it, which was picked up by a Toronto Star reporter who arrived in town to report on the event.

“In a moment of whimsy and spontaneity, when asked about the whereabouts of the groundhog, Mac playfully tossed a fur hat into the snow,” the town’s website says.

“Seizing the opportunity for a memorable photo, the reporter immortalized the hat as a stand-in for the elusive groundhog.”

There has been controversy with Willie in the past, though. In 1999, the groundhog was found dead just days before he was supposed to hit the stage for his prediction. A funeral was held but a different body was used because the groundhog had died weeks earlier and the body wasn’t fit to be on display.

In 2003, there were calls for Willie’s caretaker to be fired after it was found she had covered up the deaths of two fill-in groundhogs that would have inherited the title of Willie had the current one died. The two understudies had been living in the same den as Willie. Groundhogs are instinctively territorial, leading to suspicions that Willie had killed his roommates.

In 2017, another Willie died and his understudy “Wee Willie” assumed the role.

Then, in 2020, another Willie died but his death wasn’t announced until November 2021. The February 2021 prediction was made by the then-mayor Janice Jackson tossing a hat into the snow.

In 2022, a brown groundhog was named as the next Wiarton Willie, but he was later replaced in 2023 by the current white groundhog.

Several Canadian predictions

While Punxsutawney Phil is the OG (original groundhog), Canada has seen several weather prognosticating animals join the crowd over the years.

• Shubenacadie Sam, living in Shubenacadie Wildlife Park in Nova Scotia.
• Lucy the Lobster, living in Barrington, N.S.
• Fred la Marmotte in Val-d’Espoir, Que.
• Wiarton Willie in Wiarton, Ont.

There was also Winnipeg Wyn, but she died in 2020.

Other “groundhogs” that also offer predictions include:

• Manitoba Merv, which is a puppet/golf club cover.
• Alberta’s Balzac Billy, which is a person in a groundhog mascot costume.
• B.C.’s Okanagan Okie, which is a stuffed animal.

In 2024, Toronto company Gates Wildlife Control asked whether raccoons might be better suited to weather prognosticating.

“While Mr. Groundhog hibernates, the raccoon is busy honing its forecasting skills and navigating the concrete jungle,” the company said in a YouTube video.

“With its keen intellect and adaptability, the raccoon proposes a modern approach to weather prediction, using discarded items and urban observations instead of shadows. It’s time for a weather revolution led by the raccoon.”

While the idea was proposed, it does not appear the company found a raccoon to provide a prediction.