Why AP called the Wisconsin Senate race for Tammy Baldwin

WASHINGTON — The Associated Press declared that Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin won reelection to the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin after it determined that Republican Eric Hovde wouldn’t be able to take the lead once the remaining untabulated ballots were counted.

With nearly all of the vote counted, the AP called the race for Baldwin.

At the time the AP called the race at 1:42 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Hovde needed to win almost all of the remaining votes, many of which were in the state’s most Democratic areas.

Baldwin was one of five vulnerable Senate Democrats defending their seats with control of the chamber hanging in the balance.

The AP declares a winner only when it can determine that a trailing candidate can’t close the gap and overtake the vote leader.

Here’s a look at how the AP called this race:

CANDIDATES: Baldwin (D) vs. Hovde (R) and two others

WINNER: Baldwin

POLL CLOSING TIME: 9 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE:

Baldwin faced a tough challenge from Hovde in her bid for a third term. She was one of five vulnerable Senate Democrats defending a seat against a well-funded, Trump-backed challenger in a campaign cycle when a defeat for even one of them would likely cost the party control of the chamber.

Baldwin was first elected in 2012 when she defeated former Gov. Tommy Thompson with 51% of the vote. She won her 2018 reelection with 55%.

Both the Baldwin and Hovde campaigns and their allies blanketed the state with more than $160 million in advertising, according to data from AdImpact, a campaign ad tracking firm. Baldwin significantly outraised and outspent Hovde for the cycle, although Hovde had a slight $3.6 million to $2.4 million lead in cash available as of mid-July. Hovde, a real estate mogul and CEO of a Utah-based bank, has loaned his campaign $20 million.

Democratic candidates in Wisconsin tend to win Dane and Milwaukee counties (home to Madison and Milwaukee, respectively) by large margins regardless of whether they win or lose statewide. Republican candidates tend to rely on vote-rich Brown County (home to Green Bay) and the conservative “WOW” counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington in suburban Milwaukee, as well as big margins in the more rural areas in the northern half of the state.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE:

With an estimated 99% of the vote counted, Hovde needed to win more than 9 out of 10 of the remaining uncounted ballots. Some of those ballots were in areas where he had been performing well, such Waukesha, Brown, Outagamie, Racine and Washington counties, but a substantial amount were in the heavily Democratic counties of Milwaukee and Dane. Ballots from these two counties would offset any vote leads Hovde might have gained from the more Republican-voting counties. This made it impossible for Hovde to close the gap with Baldwin.

Baldwin fended off the challenge from Hovde based on her big leads in the Milwaukee and Madison areas and by holding the line in traditional Republican advantage in other parts of the state.

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Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.