Toy prices could jump if Trump adds new tariffs in 2025, threatening some toy retailers

President-elect Donald Trump is pledging to slap new tariffs on imports after he’s inaugurated next month — a vow that’s prompting the toy industry to warn about the impact. 

Even if toys are designed in Europe or the U.S., they are frequently manufactured in China, a nation whose exports Trump last month threatened to target with a new 10% tariff as soon as he takes office. On the campaign trail, he floated the idea of a tariff of up to 60% on all Chinese goods. Nearly 80% of U.S. toys are manufactured in China, according to The Toy Association, an industry group. 

If Trump carries through with his tariff plan, toy prices would rise “probably instantly,” Jennifer Bergman, the owner of New York City’s West Side Kids told CBS News. She estimates that about 90% of the toys she sells are made in China. 

To be sure, the toy industry isn’t alone in fretting about the impact of Trump’s promised tariffs, as higher prices on a broad range of imports would likely be passed onto consumers. After more than four decades serving the neighborhood, Bergman fears that higher prices may threaten her shop’s survival and impact her customers.

“It would be heartbreaking,” she said. “It would be a real loss for the community. It would be a real loss for me. I can’t really imagine not being here.”

If Trump follows through on his tariff plans, American consumers stand to lose as much as $78 billion in spending power annually on products, including apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods, the National Retail Federation stated in findings released last month.

The toy industry is also sounding the alarm, with the Toy Association calling the potential tariffs “significantly harmful” and urging its members to contact their Congressional delegates to express their concern. 

Tariffs are essentially a tax on imports, but rather than being paid by the exporting country or company, the levy is paid by the importer — and much of that is handed off to consumers in the form of higher prices. 

“A tariff of 60% on China would be a major shock to international goods markets,” experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics wrote in a Dec. 12 blog post.

The toy industry would be one of the U.S. industries facing the worst impacts because China is the dominant supplier to the U.S., they added. 

“While toys seem like products for which substitute sellers would be readily available, China maintains a dominant position in toy production for several reasons, including its not-easily-reproduced capacity to produce materials that meet US product safety standards,” they noted.

Still, some economists say Trump could use the threat of tariffs as a bargaining tool, without actually implementing the import duties. And tariffs could also encourage more U.S. manufacturing of toys and other products, although that would likely take time for new factories to ramp up.