Saints vs. Falcons odds, line, start time: 2024 NFL picks, Week 10 predictions from proven model

The New Orleans Saints (2-7) will try to split their season series with the Atlanta Falcons (6-3) when the NFC South rivals meet on Sunday. New Orleans has dropped seven consecutive games, including a 26-24 setback at Atlanta at the end of September. The Falcons have won five of their last six games to take a two-game lead over Tampa Bay atop the division standings. They are coming off back-to-back wins over the Buccaneers and Cowboys, while the Saints lost to Carolina on the road last week. 

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Caesars Superdome. The Falcons are favored by 3.5 points in the latest Saints vs. Falcons odds, while the over/under is 46.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Falcons vs. Saints picks, you’ll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 14-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 195-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 49-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on Atlanta-New Orleans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the game:

• Saints vs. Falcons spread: Falcons -3.5
• Saints vs. Falcons over/under: 46.5 points
• Saints vs. Falcons money line: Falcons -190, Saints +159
• Saints vs. Falcons picks: See picks here
• Saints vs. Falcons streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans struggled mightily in its three games without veteran quarterback Derek Carr, but he returned to action last week in a 23-22 loss at Carolina. Carr completed 18 of 31 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown, while star running back Alvin Kamara had 215 total yards. Kamara finished with 77 rushing yards and a touchdown in a 26-24 loss at Atlanta earlier this season, helping the Saints cover as 2.5-point road underdogs. 

The Saints were solid in their two home games with Carr under center to open the season, cruising to a 47-10 win over Carolina before losing to Philadelphia by a field goal. They are in desperation mode right now, while Atlanta could get caught in a letdown spot after taking a two-game lead atop the division standings. New Orleans is 13-5 in its last 18 home games against Atlanta, and it has won 10 of the last 14 meetings overall. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Falcons can cover

Atlanta lost two of its first three games this season, but it has taken firm control of the NFC South by going 5-1 in its six games since then. The Falcons have already knocked off the Saints once this season, and they are in a much better state of mind entering the second matchup. They are coming off wins over the Buccaneers and Cowboys, increasing their scoring average to 24.6 points per game. 

Quarterback Kirk Cousins leads the offense with 2,328 passing yards and 17 touchdowns, as Darnell Mooney, Drake London and Kyle Pitts have each gone over 400 receiving yards. Second-year running back Bijan Robinson has been a focal point as well, racking up 632 rushing yards, 303 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Atlanta has covered the spread in four of its last five games, while New Orleans is winless against the spread in its last five games. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Saints vs. Falcons picks

The model has simulated Falcons vs. Saints 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins New Orleans vs. Atlanta on Sunday, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Saints spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 195-136 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.