Record turnout at advanced polls created dramatic shifts in key ridings

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A record 7.3 million people voted on four days over the Easter long weekend ahead of this week’s federal election, representing roughly a quarter of all registered voters.

But Elections Canada only began counting those ballots two hours before polls closed on Monday. That meant results for some ridings were slow to arrive and voters went to sleep on election night without knowing exactly what their next government would look like.

The impact of advance voting on the process is only expected to grow, as the number of people who opt for the more flexible advance voting days has increased in successive elections. About 25 per cent more people voted early this year compared with 2021, when 5.8 million people voted in advance polls.

Elections Canada is defending its approach to counting advance ballots, but a spokesperson said the agency is open to making changes.

“As we do after each election, in the coming months, we will take an in-depth look at how things went and will use that analysis to make changes to our processes to improve the delivery of future elections,” spokesperson Matthew McKenna said in a statement.

“Canadians’ voting habits continue to evolve and there has been a trend towards greater use of advance voting options. This is something we will continue to assess.”

Counting was suspended in the early hours of Tuesday and resumed later that morning, including in key ridings that remained too close to call for much of the day after the vote. The Liberals were on track to form a potential minority government, but results could change in the coming days based on recounts in some ridings.

Under the Canada Elections Act, counts can begin an hour before polls close, but the high advance turnout prompted Stéphane Perrault, the Chief Electoral Officer, to use a provision in the law to bump the counting time forward another hour.

The issue was especially acute in the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s riding. A group protesting the lack of progress on electoral reform signed up dozens of volunteers to run as candidates, and a total of 91 names appeared on an exceptionally long ballot. That caused the Chief Electoral Officer to make another adjustment, allowing advance ballots in the riding to be counted as early as six hours before polls closed.

Mr. McKenna’s statement said Mr. Perrault will publish a report on the election in coming months and share his thoughts with Parliament on changing the Elections Act.

Laura Stephenson, the chair of the political science department at Western University in London, Ont., said it makes sense to wait to count advance ballots when the massive number of volunteer scrutineers on election day are available to oversee the counting process.

For advance polling days and the election day, the Elections Canada website says the agency hires about 230,000 workers across Canada, making the independent, non-partisan agency in charge of elections momentarily one of the country’s largest employers.

“It would make sense to have them do this at the same time and then there is no possibility of outside leaks or anything like that that could, in any way shape or form, sway people’s decisions,” Ms. Stephenson said.

Ms. Stephenson acknowledged there can be cases where the surge in a large number of advance ballots leads to sudden shifts in the outcomes as votes are being counted.

“That’s just the way it works out,” she said.

Ms. Stephenson said Elections Canada is intent on maximizing the accessibility of elections for voters.

That means the agency is sensitive about complaints from Canadians that it is not convenient to vote and will work to deal with those concerns.

“Everything they do is going to be based on that,” she said. “The point is to make voting easy and simple for the maximum number of people so people’s voices can be heard.”