Polls edge toward Trump: Here's where the swing states stand
Former President Trump is enjoying a small but measurable shot of momentum as the race for the White House enters its closing stretch.
Polls have been edging in Trump’s direction since Vice President Harris hit her two high points — around the Democratic National Convention in late August and following her first and only debate with Trump on Sept. 10.
A recent media blitz by Harris has failed to give any comparable boost, judging from polling within the past week.
Even so, all signs point to an extraordinarily close race.
The forecasting model maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) now gives each candidate an exactly 50 percent chance of prevailing, a shift from a recent high of 56 percent for Harris less than a month ago.
The slight movement toward Trump disconcerts Democrats because he has often outperformed his polling numbers in the past.
On the other hand, it is possible that the abortion issue could drive increased turnout for Harris in the first presidential election since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade.
Seven states are likely to decide the election. Here’s where the polls stand in each of them.
Arizona
The Grand Canyon State is one of Trump’s strongest battlegrounds. He currently leads The Hill/DDHQ polling average by 1.7 points.
President Biden won Arizona in 2002 by a tiny margin — about one-third of a percentage point.
Team Trump can take some satisfaction from the fact that two high-quality polls in Arizona emerged in the past week, putting him up by clear margins.
A New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted last week but released this week, put Trump up by a startling 6 points among registered voters. A more recent CBS News/YouGov poll gave Trump a 3-point edge.
Arizona is also the location for one of the most high-profile Senate races this year, where Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is competing against Republican firebrand Kari Lake.
Gallego is a firm favorite to win that contest but, at the presidential level, Harris looks to be facing an uphill climb.
Georgia
Trump now leads by 1.9 percent in The Hill/DDHQ average in the Peach State — his largest lead in any battleground.
Harris had led the polling averages here in early September but her edge has now clearly been overturned.
That said, there is plenty of uncertainty, not least because any outlier poll can have a big effect when the polling averages are so tight. A Quinnipiac University poll in Georgia this week put Trump up by 6 points — a better result for him than other surveys, even from GOP-leaning pollsters.
Early voting began in Georgia on Tuesday. The number of ballots that came in that day alone — around 310,000 — was more than twice the previous record for the first day of early voting in the state.
Harris and former President Obama will campaign in Georgia on Thursday as she tries to boost Black turnout to help eke out a win.
Michigan
The Hill/DDHQ average varies somewhat from other polling averages in the Wolverine State, giving Trump a 0.7-point lead.
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin newsletter both have Harris up by six-tenths of a point.
All three averages, however, show Harris’s position eroding. In The Hill’s average, she was ahead by 1.3 points a month ago.
Democratic worries focus on two factors.
The first is the electoral impact of the Biden-Harris administration’s support for Israel in a state that is home to more than 200,000 Arab Americans. The other is concern about whether Harris has enough appeal to blue-collar voters. The Michigan Professional Fire Fighters Union announced this week that it would not endorse either candidate.
Still, Harris is by no means out of it in Michigan.
A poll this week from RMG Research showed each candidate getting 49 percent support.
Nevada
Harris is clinging to a narrow lead here in all three major polling averages. Her advantage is just two-tenths of a point in The Hill/DDHQ average, having stood at more than 2 points a month ago.
Nevada is the smallest of the battleground states, with six Electoral College votes at stake.
Voters who work in the service industry in Las Vegas and Reno are vital — so it’s no surprise that Harris copied Trump’s proposal to make tipped income tax exempt.
There hasn’t been much polling in the past week in Nevada. One new survey from Trafalgar Research — one of the few firms that correctly projected Trump’s 2016 victory — had Harris leading by a single point.
North Carolina
In-person early voting got underway in the Tar Heel State on Thursday. More than 353,000 North Carolinians cast their ballot that day, according to the board of elections. This total surpassed the 2020 first-day number, though only narrowly.
Trump leads by exactly 1 point in The Hill/DDHQ average. The state is the only one of the seven battlegrounds that the former president carried in 2020.
Harris can take heart from a Quinnipiac University poll this week that put her up by 3 points. Other surveys showed Trump up by between 2 points and 5 points.
One wild card in North Carolina is the political impact of the severe flooding caused by Hurricane Helene. Trump is scheduled to visit Asheville, the worst-affected major city, on Monday.
Any shortcomings in the federal response could hurt Harris. On the other hand, Trump drew rare dissent from within his own party for some untrue claims he made about the response, including falsely implying that relief from the Federal Emergency Management Agency was capped at $750.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is the biggest prize on the battleground map, with 19 Electoral College votes up for grabs.
Harris has an edge of three-tenths of a point in The Hill/DDHQ average, meaning the race is in effect a dead heat.
Shortly before Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Trump enjoyed close to a 5-point lead here. Harris hit her apex immediately after her September debate, when she led by 2.1 points.
Democrats contend that the polling averages are being skewed in the Keystone State by several recent surveys from firms with a perceived GOP lean.
The exception is a New York Times/Siena College poll that gave Harris a 4-point edge among likely voters.
Given Pennsylvania’s centrality to the election’s outcome, it’s no surprise that the campaigns and their allies are spending huge money there.
Forbes, citing data from AdImpact, reported that almost $300 million had been spent on political ads in the state from July 22 — the day after Biden dropped out — until Oct. 8. It was a larger sum than any other battleground state.
Wisconsin
Trump leads here by half a percentage point in The Hill/DDHQ average, while Harris clings to similarly tiny leads in the other main polling averages.
Trump carried the state in 2016, becoming the first Republican to do so since former President Reagan in 1984. He lost narrowly in 2020, despite significantly outperforming his polling averages.
During the past week, Wisconsin polls have mostly been from firms that tend to deliver GOP-friendly results. They have found Trump with a small advantage.
Losing Wisconsin would be a bad blow to Harris, but the state has followed the same trajectory as many of the other battlegrounds, where her lead has been whittled away.
She led by almost 5 points in The Hill/DDHQ average in late August.