Poilievre’s pivot: Conservatives conducting internal surveys to adapt message

A possible tariff war with the United States, Justin Trudeau’s departure and the Liberal leadership race are all upsetting Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s campaign plans.

And behind the scenes, not all Conservatives agree on how to adjust.

“The carbon tax is no longer the ballot box question,” a Conservative source in Western Canada told Radio-Canada. “But we’ve invested so much money fine-tuning that message, it’s hard to abandon it completely.”

Sources told Radio-Canada the Conservative Party has commissioned a series of internal surveys to find the best way to adapt Poilievre’s message. The aim is to test new lines of attack against the Liberals.

“The start of a tariff war with the United States is changing voters’ moods. It’s harder to talk about a broken Canada when there’s a growing sense of patriotism,” another Conservative source said.

Canada’s political landscape is changing rapidly.

“The challenge is to demonstrate that the party can adapt quickly, that the leader can go beyond slogans and that he has more than one trick up his sleeve,” warns a third source close to the party.

Radio-Canada is not identifying the sources because they were speaking about internal party matters.

Adjustment in progress

There’s been an adjustment in Poilievre’s rhetoric since Donald Trump was sworn in, and his threats of tariffs have become increasingly real.

Poilievre promises that “Conservatives will take back control of our border and put Canada first,” echoing one of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reasons for threatening to impose tariffs on Canada. 

On Monday morning, before Trump announced a 30-day reprieve on his planned 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods, Poilievre proposed sending troops and helicopters to the border, adding 2,000 new border officers and expanding the powers of the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) across the entire border.

But in the same breath, he blamed the Liberal government for its failure at the border. According to Poilievre, Trump is in a strong position because the Liberals prevented the development of pipelines in Canada.

“President Trump has been given an incredible gift by these radical, anti-development Liberals when they block the projects that would have made us more self-reliant.”

Poilievre is calling on the Liberals to recall MPs to the House of Commons to adopt his own Canada First plan. 

But he hasn’t committed to negotiating with the other parties on a plan. And he refuses to commit to bringing down the minority government at the first opportunity if the House were to come back.

One of the challenges, according to Conservative sources, is to strike the right balance in attacking the Liberals. 

“Voters want us to stand up for Canada. But in times of crisis, they may be less receptive if we are too critical of the government.”

Continuing the carbon tax attack?

According to sources, there are differences of opinion within the Conservative Party’s decision-making apparatus on whether or not it’s important to keep hammering away at the carbon tax.

A faction close to Poilievre continues to believe that the carbon tax strategy should not be dropped, because it goes to the heart of the Conservative message on affordability. 

For months, Poilievre has been calling for a “carbon tax election” to get rid of Trudeau. But all the Liberal candidates who want to replace him promise to abolish, transform or suspend the carbon tax increase on individuals. 

“We can’t let the Liberals pull the rug out from under us,” one source said. “By saying Carbon Tax Carney or Carbon Tax Chrystia, it’s a way of tying them personally to Justin Trudeau’s legacy. It’s at the heart of our strategy.”

Several Conservatives also point out that a lot of money has been invested in this game plan, and there’s little time left to change course.

“They don’t want to reinvent the wheel at one minute to midnight, but I don’t think they’ll have a choice,” a Conservative strategist said. “Canadians’ minds are elsewhere.”

How best to handle Carney?

“We’ll have to manage the next Liberal leader differently,” one Conservative source said. “People hated Justin Trudeau, but are more neutral towards Mark Carney, because they don’t know him.”

According to many Conservatives, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney embodies novelty, while former finance minister Chrystia Freeland is easier to tie to Justin Trudeau’s legacy.

Last week, the Conservatives seemed to be keeping close tabs on Carney. Two Conservative MPs held press briefings in front of buildings where the Liberal leadership candidate was attending events.

The Conservatives didn’t give the same treatment to other aspiring leaders such as Freeland and Karina Gould. 

“It just goes to show you who we think is going to win,” a Conservative source said.

“This is our chance to define Mark Carney in people’s minds. But the window is slim, especially if he declares a snap election,” the source said. “We have to tell the world that Carney, he’s not an outsider. He was behind Justin Trudeau’s policies, he was pulling the strings.”

Holding the lead

The Conservatives also recognize that the Liberals are enjoying a slight bump in the polls, with Trudeau’s departure and Trump’s bellicose rhetoric.

“There may be some Liberals fed up with Trudeau who had come to the Conservatives and are now going back to the Liberals,” admits a former Conservative campaign manager. “But our base is there. It’s solid and it’s going to stay with us.”

Polls show a slight decline for the Conservatives and a small increase for the Liberals in recent weeks. According to Abacus Data, the Conservative lead has dropped from 26 to 21 points. According to Léger, the Conservative lead has shrunk to 18 points.

The CBC Poll Tracker shows the Liberals have made gains over the last few weeks, but the Conservatives still hold a wide and decisive lead.

Several Conservatives said this burst of enthusiasm for the Liberals won’t last.

“The size of the victory may shrink, but we’ll win just the same,” a former Conservative strategist said.

Some Conservatives acknowledge they may lose some seats in Ontario or Atlantic Canada that they were hoping to win, “but not enough to hurt us.”

“Look at [Democratic presidential candidate] Kamala Harris in the U.S. That didn’t last long,” said one Conservative. “We’re not afraid, but we don’t take anything for granted.”

According to this strategist, Carney will have a hard time winning support from middle-class Canadians.

“Pierre Poilievre has been courting the working class for two years,” says a former Conservative campaign manager. “If Mr. Carney tries to present himself as an ordinary person, it’s not very convincing. It’s hard for people to believe that a banker really understands their day-to-day challenges.”

Although the Liberal race has barely begun, the Conservatives’ target is already clear.