Morning Update: Trudeau’s era ends

Good morning. Donald Trump’s aggression has brought out an unusual bluntness in Justin Trudeau, who will be replaced as Liberal leader on Sunday. More on that below, along with a rise in measles cases and a tone-deaf Meghan Markle series. But first:

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Today’s headlines

• Trump partly waives 25-per-cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2
• Trudeau and his cabinet are approving dozens of appointments in the government’s final days
• The RCMP launches a probe into contracting allegations in Alberta’s health care system

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Politics

A shifting Canadian political landscape

Hi, I’m Shannon Proudfoot, a feature writer in The Globe’s Ottawa bureau. On Sunday, the Liberals will count the votes and announce their new party leader. That will mean curtains on something set into motion two months ago: the end of the Justin Trudeau era.

Liberals were wandering the political wilderness before he became leader in 2013, and since he swept them to a majority victory in 2015 and two subsequent minority governments, the party has arguably functioned as more of a cult of personality, with its tone, decision-making and influence centred tightly on the Prime Minister and his inner circle. So this is a seismic change.

Trudeau’s final moments as leader and Prime Minister have unfolded amid the threat of punishing tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. For weeks, there was a sort of strategic, careful politesse to what the Prime Minister said about Trump and his threats against Canada. But as the tariffs came into force this week, Trudeau got rather blunt in his assessment of the situation.

“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” is how Trudeau assessed the President’s true goals. He also explicitly linked the tariffs to Trump’s support of “lying, murderous dictator” Vladimir Putin, challenging the world (or maybe Trump?) to “Make that make sense.” This seemed designed to underline the generalized madness of Trump’s actions, and to make the case that the attack on Canada today could be any other country tomorrow.

It’s impossible to tell whether this saying-the-quiet-part-loud approach is because the Prime Minister has one foot out the door or because there was no point in walking on eggshells any more once the full force of Trump’s aggression had come into play. Trudeau has generally not been a politician given to directness or clarity.

In a broader sense, it’s been fascinating to watch how these simultaneous huge shifts in the Canadian political landscape – Trudeau exiting, a leadership contest to choose his successor and the bellowing threats against Canada emanating from the White House – have reshaped how citizens see things that looked carved in stone not long ago.

Polls that had been lodged for a year and a half with fat Conservative leads suddenly started to shift over the past two months. The average gap between the Tories and Liberals shrank from more than 20 points to single digits, and a handful of major polls even showed the Liberals sneaking ahead for the first time since 2023.

It’s not clear yet exactly what Canadians are reacting to.

Is it Trudeau finally stepping down, taking some of the pent-up incumbent resentment with him? Is it the fear and stress of what the tariffs will mean for the Canadian economy, and the corresponding search for someone who seems like a steady hand to manage that? Is Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre becoming a less-appealing prospect?

The steepness of the shift almost guarantees some regression, but it remains to be seen where things even out.

Already, a Leger poll out this week shows the Conservatives recovering some of their lead, and a small three-point gap in people’s willingness to vote for a Liberal Party led by former central banker Mark Carney vs. one led by Trudeau.

While the winner will take over the party leadership on Sunday, that person becoming prime minister is a separate process, though Trudeau has indicated that it will happen soon after, once he and his successor agree on a plan.

The opposition parties have vowed to bring down the minority government at their first opportunity, and the House of Commons is set to return from prorogation on March 24, which means Canada would be launched into an election campaign days later.

Carney, the front-runner for the leadership, suggested he would dissolve Parliament and trigger an election campaign himself rather than waiting to be defeated in the House. Rival Chrystia Freeland said that if she wins, she’ll meet premiers and territorial leaders, as well as business and union leaders, to seek their thoughts on whether she should go to the polls.

All of this means that whatever public opinion is doing and whatever is fuelling that as the Trudeau Liberal era ends, the next one begins, and Trump looks at Canada with wolf eyes from across the border, we won’t have to wait long to find out what Canadians think about it all.

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The Shot

‘I have a lot of fear about what is going to happen.’

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Ride-alongs with Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Atlanta and Colorado show Trump’s crackdown at work, as migrants fear for the worst – regardless of whether they came to the United States illegally or not. This is what an ICE raid looks like.

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The Wrap

What else we’re following

At home: Canada’s cybersecurity protection agency is warning that China, Russia and Iran are all very likely to use AI in an effort to interfere with the coming federal election.

Abroad: As new atrocities against civilians are reported in Sudan, Canada announces its toughest-ever sanctions on the the two highest-ranking leaders in the war.

Bad news: Canada’s top public-health officer warns of more measles cases and local transmission as families head into the spring travel season.

Bad views: The new Netflix series from Meghan Markle – sorry, it’s Meghan Sussex now – is a royal blunder, Johanna Schneller writes.