Is it R.I.P. for the federal NDP? Not quite, experts say

The New Democratic Party’s devastating electoral losses do not translate to a death knell for the party but are an important signal that some significant structural changes are needed, analysts say.

“I don’t believe the claims that this is it for the NDP,” said Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University.

“But for them it is the type of organizational crisis that is going to require a lot of attention and soul-searching in order to get back on a footing where they are viewed by Canadians as a really fundamental third option.”

The NDP, which held 24 seats at dissolution, is now projected to end up with just over six per cent of the popular vote and seven seats — resulting in the worst showing of the party’s history. It was crushed in provinces like B.C., where it’s projected to lose 10 of its 13 seats, and in Ontario, where it’s projected to be wiped out, losing the five ridings it had held.

The results prompted NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to announce his resignation, while his party’s poor showing means it won’t have official status in the House of Commons.

Without such status, the NDP will miss out on crucial parliamentary funding, be allowed to ask fewer questions during question period and likely be unable to participate in parliamentary committees.

It suffered a significant defeat before in 1993, when, led by Audrey McLaughlin, it won only nine seats and also lost official status.

Its heyday remains the 2011 election, when leader Jack Layton rode the “Orange Wave” to a record 103 seats and Official Opposition status.

Party suffered decline in vote share and seat count

But since that wave — believed to have been largely built more on Layton’s personality than party policy — there’s been a repeated decline in the party’s vote share and seat count.

While its provincial cousins continue to maintain a presence in provincial legislatures, the federal party has suffered diminishing returns over the years.

“And crucially, a broader confusion about just what it is [the New Democrats] offer, what it is [they] stand for and what it is that [they] provide,” said Tari Ajadi, assistant professor of political science at McGill University. “That’s a massive issue.”

Jonathan Malloy, a political science professor at Carleton University, said he believes the election night results mostly centred on voter fear of President Donald Trump, which drove NDP supporters to the Liberals.

“The party had a very bad night, but it could point to a specific reason why,” he said. “So, that’s the consolation for them.”

But Ajadi said while the fear of Trump was a significant factor, it’s the internal workings of the NDP that need to be scrutinized after many of its seats went to the Conservatives — more than they lost to the Liberals.

“That is a remarkable situation and that speaks to what I do think is an existential crisis for the party,” Ajadi said.

The party has not managed mobilizing its support in any kind of meaningful way and, crucially, has forgot about or does not understand what makes up their coalition of voters, Ajadi said.

“You can speak to your upper-middle-class, progressive voters in cities,” he said. “But if you forget your base in terms of the autoworkers, in terms of working-class people … I mean, it’s remarkable to me.”

The party has not come across as a credible advocate for the working person in a long time, he said.

“In order for them to get back to a space where that coalition works out for them, they’re not going to have to win back votes from the Liberals. They’re going to have win back votes from Conservatives.”

Lawlor said she believes there will be another incarnation of the NDP. But one of the challenges of this election was that a lot of the committed NDP voter base was disaffected and disappeared.

Loss of private sector union support to Conservatives

The loss of private sector organized labour to the Conservatives is a major issue and a real hit to the core of the party and the traditional view of what the NDP is, she said.

Lawlor said the party mistakenly believed that it could garner support from those who broadly identify as socially progressive. However, that coalition was not strong enough to uphold the party.

“They have to get back to attracting a young working-class voter base, if they want to rebuild the structure,” she said.

Lawlor said there is a broad segment of voters out there who could form part of that base. She said they are at least willing to give the NDP a look at voting time to see if what they have on offer is attractive, even if it is just a place to park their vote.

“They can decide what foundation the next incarnation of the NDP is going to rest on, but they need something, some base coalition of voters that can be predictably relied upon so they don’t end up with seven seats again, so they don’t end up losing party status,” she said.