Falcons bench Kirk Cousins: Michael Penix Jr. improves longshot Super Bowl chance, per projection model

After trading 2016 NFL MVP Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts prior to the 2022 season, the Atlanta Falcons struggled to find a suitable replacement for the next two years. Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke were all given the chance to grab hold of the starting quarterback job but failed to impress during their opportunities.

Atlanta thought it finally found its starter when it signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract this past March. After all, the 36-year-old was a four-time Pro Bowler who threw for more than 4,000 yards seven times over eight campaigns with the then-Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings from 2015-22.

However, 2023 was a difficult year for Cousins, who guided Minnesota to a 3-4 record before suffering a season-ending Achilles injury in a Week 8 victory over the Green Bay Packers. That did not dissuade the Falcons from investing in him, but they apparently devised a backup plan – selecting 2023 Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. of the Washington Huskies with the eighth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft.

Cousins’ tenure in Atlanta got off to a less-than-spectacular start, as he threw just four touchdown passes and three interceptions while averaging 216 passing yards as the team split its first four games. He finally came up with a huge effort against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5, breaking Ryan’s franchise record with 509 passing yards and four TD tosses in a 36-30 overtime victory.

Two more pedestrian performances followed before Cousins again had four scoring passes in a Week 8 triumph at Tampa Bay, and he threw for three touchdowns as the Falcons defeated the Dallas Cowboys a week later. He produced a pair of 300-yard outings over the next four games but was intercepted eight times without a TD toss as Atlanta lost each contest.

The Falcons ended the slide in Week 15 with a 15-9 triumph over the Las Vegas Raiders, but Cousins’ play hardly was impressive. He completed 11 of his 17 pass attempts and finished with a mere 112 yards, marking the third time this year he failed to reach the 200 plateau.

Atlanta evened its record at 7-7 with the victory and sits one game behind Tampa Bay (8-6) as it prepares to host the NFL-worst New York Giants (2-12) on Sunday. With only three contests remaining in the regular season, the team can ill afford another disappointing performance by Cousins. Knowing this, head coach Raheem Morris has elected to put Plan B into effect and bench the veteran in favor of Penix.

The 24-year-old Penix began his collegiate career at Indiana and appeared in 20 games over four injury-riddled seasons with the Hoosiers before transferring to Washington in December 2021. He led the Pac-12 in 2022 with 4,641 passing yards and was first in the nation last year with 4,903 as he helped the team earn a berth in the CFP National Championship Game, which it lost to the Michigan Wolverines 34-13.

Penix threw 67 touchdown passes and 19 interceptions in 28 games during his two-year tenure at Washington and, despite his injury history, was too good for the Falcons to pass up when their turn came in the first round of the draft back in April. The left-hander made his NFL debut in Week 7 and completed his only pass attempt for 14 yards in a 34-14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

He saw action again in Atlanta’s 38-6 defeat against the Denver Broncos four weeks later, completing 2-of-4 throws for 24 yards. On Sunday, he’ll make his first start in the league versus a Giants team that has lost nine straight but is ranked seventh in the league in defending the pass, as it has allowed 200.4 yards per game.

After hosting New York, the Falcons visit the Washington Commanders (9-5) before welcoming the Carolina Panthers (3-11) to Merceds-Benz Stadium to conclude the regular season. They own the tiebreaker with Tampa Bay, meaning they need to make up just one game to win the division title over the Buccaneers, who visit Dallas (6-8) in Week 16 before finishing with home matchups against the Panthers and New Orleans Saints (5-9).

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Falcons take the NFC South crown in 22.4% of its simulations. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says Atlanta has a 14% chance to win out, which would put its prospects of overtaking both the Seahawks (8-6) and Commanders for a wild-card berth at 6%.

The model believes the Falcons have a slightly better shot at success with Penix under center, as opposed to the current version of Cousins. The area in which they improve most is making the playoffs, as the model says they do so 25.6% of the time with Penix to 23.8% with Cousins. Their chances of winning the first Super Bowl championship in franchise history 

ATLANTA	WINS	DIVISION	PLAYOFFS	CONFERENCE	SUPER BOWL
With an ineffective Cousins	8.7	19.7%	23.8%	0.8%	0.2%
With Penix	8.8	20/0%	25.6%	1.2%	0.4%

Penix will be tasked with generating offense for an Atlanta team that has scored more than 17 points just once in its last five games. That figures to be a reasonable ask against New York, which has allowed at least 20 points seven times over its past eight contests.

The rookie quarterback likely will lean heavily on second-year running back Bijan Robinson versus a Giants squad that is 31st in the NFL against the run (143.7 yards allowed). The 22-year-old is fifth in the league with 1,102 rushing yards and has reached triple digits in three of his last five outings.

The model is calling for the Falcons to defeat the Giants by more than one score, but the game does not have an A-grade pick based on simulations for the 16th week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 16 NFL picks at SportsLine.