Erode (East): A bypoll with few challenges for DMK

Tamil Nadu Minister for Housing and Urban Development S. Muthusamy (second right) seeks votes for DMK candidate V.C. Chandhirakumar (right) in Erode on January 15, 2025.
| Photo Credit: M. Govarthan

In normal circumstances, a bye-election should be a political audit of the government’s performance. In Tamil Nadu, although a few bye-elections have favoured Opposition parties, most of them have gone in favour of the ruling dispensation. The entire Cabinet and official machinery work towards this goal, as ruling parties treat bypolls as a matter of prestige.

The upcoming bypoll for the Erode (East) Assembly constituency, on February 5, 2025, necessitated by the death of the Congress legislator E.V.K.S. Elangovan, however, poses little threat to the ruling dispensation. With the General Assembly election just a year away, the Congress has stepped aside in favour of its alliance leader, the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which has announced V.C. Chandirakumar, a former DMDK legislator, as its candidate.

Erode is witnessing a second bypoll in two years. In 2023, a bypoll was held after Thirumagan Evera, the son of Mr. Elangovan, passed away. The Congress successfully fielded Mr. Elangovan in the by-election with DMK’s support. This time, the Congress has left it to the DMK, as family members of Mr. Elangovan are not keen on contesting.

The charm of the impending bypoll was lost on the day that the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the main Opposition party, announced its decision to boycott it. It is surprising, given the AIADMK’s organisational strength in the western region, known as the Kongu belt.

Even today, the AIADMK is represented in the Assembly by more members from this region. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is also staying away from the bypoll.

In a State where by-elections were furiously fought and heralded a change of regime, the decision of the AIADMK and the NDA to boycott them exposes their inability to put up a good fight, let alone secure victory. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami justified his party’s decision on the grounds that the ruling party would misuse its power and not allow the electors to cast their votes freely.

While the ruling party has an advantage in a by-election, as the voters in the constituency generally do not take risks by electing an Opposition party candidate, the AIADMK could have left a mark if it had the company of the BJP. The absence of a strong alliance, rather than the “excesses of the ruling party”, as alleged by Mr. Palaniswami, is the reason behind the AIADMK’s boycott.

By-elections are important. The by-election to the Dindigul Lok Sabha in 1973 announced the arrival and permanent domination of the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu politics. In 1974, C. Aranganayagam (AIADMK), who later became a Minister in the Cabinets of M.G. Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa, won the bypoll to the Coimbatore West Assembly constituency when the DMK was in power. The DMK, too, had won bypolls when the AIADMK was in power under the leadership of MGR.

It was late AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa who emphasised bypolls. In 2002, she and her entire Cabinet campaigned in the Sathankulam by-election. When she fell out with her ally and actor-turned-politician Vijayakant in 2011, she challenged him to field his party candidate in the by-election to the Tenkasi constituency, to prove his strength.

The party started losing by-elections only after her death in 2016. T.T.V. Dhinankaran, the nephew of Ms. Jayalalithaa’s confidante Sasikala, sprang a surprise by winning the bypoll to the RK Nagar constituency, as an Independent, defeating both the DMK and the AIADMK candidates.

The DMK won 13 seats in the 22 Assembly seats in bypolls held alongside the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. These results foretold what was in store for the ruling AIADMK in the 2021 Assembly elections.

Presently, the AIADMK may not be able to pose any challenge to the DMK if it remains a divided house, with one faction led by Mr. Palaniswami and another by his former colleague O. Panneerselvam. The party also lacks a strong ally that can tilt the balance in certain pockets.

The emergence of new players such as actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam and a good show by Naam Tamilar Katchi in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, which earned recognition from the Election Commission, will throw up more challenges if the AIADMK does not play its cards well.