Do the Liberals have a hope of reclaiming Regina-Wascana this election?

As the federal election looms, experts say they expect the Conservative Party of Canada to maintain its strong grip on Saskatchewan, but the Liberals could potentially break through in a handful of ridings. 

Saskatchewan’s 14 federal electoral districts have been entirely blue since 2019.

Experts have already highlighted Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River as district that could potentially change hands this election.

One of the other Saskatchewan seats that could be vulnerable to a surging Liberal Party is Regina-Wascana.

Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, and Éric Grenier, a polls analyst and the creator of thewrit.ca, agreed in separate interviews that the Liberals could put up a real fight in the district.

“It was really, aside from the northern riding [of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River], the only place where the Liberals were marginally competitive,” Grenier said.

What’s not clear is whether that competitiveness could translate to a win.

The experts said that although the Liberals may have held Regina-Wascana for 25 years, that may have been due to the enduring popularity of Ralph Goodale, rather than significant support for the Liberals.

“I think it’s going to be hard for the Liberals to win the riding with the candidate that doesn’t have the kind of provincial popularity of Goodale,” Westlake said.

The Ralph Goodale effect

For 25 years, Regina-Wascana was held by one man: Liberal MP Ralph Goodale. 

From 1994 to 2019, Goodale was a resolute feature at community events in Regina.

In Ottawa, he served in the governments of Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin and Justin Trudeau in a variety of portfolios, including as minister of public safety and minister of finance.

Then, during the 2019 federal election, the Conservative Party rode a blue wave to sweep all 14 federal seats in Saskatchewan. Goodale was defeated by Conservative candidate Michael Kram, who remains the incumbent MP.

Goodale, the current high commissioner to the United Kingdom, remains the most recent Liberal MP from Saskatchewan. 

Not having a popular, big-name candidate like Goodale makes any attempt to win Regina-Wascana a challenge for the Liberals. 

Westlake said he has spoken to Liberal campaigners in Regina-Wascana and taken one thing away from those conversations.

“A lot of that vote when the Liberals were winning that riding was a Ralph Goodale vote,” Westlake said. 

Grenier said there have been few Regina-specific polls, so that makes riding-by-ridingpredictions difficult. 

A recent poll commissioned by the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA) and conducted by Rubicon Strategy shows that Conservative support remains high across the province.

So although the Liberals are picking up support in the cities, Grenier said it’s unlikely to translate to a win.

“You would still consider that the Conservative would be the favourite to hold it, just based on how they are still leading by significant margin in every poll that we’ve seen,” Grenier said.

NDP gains in provincial election unlikely to translate: experts

The results of last year’s provincial election — where the NDP swept all but one urban riding — are unlikely to translate to a similar result in the federal election, the expert said.

One of the central reasons is electoral geography. 

In the provincial election, there are a lot of ridings that are smaller and located in the core of Regina or Saskatoon. 

“Ridings are a lot larger geographically at the federal level, which means you really have these ridings that are mixed suburban-city centre ridings,” Westlake said.

A lot of those suburban votes will be conservative-leaning, he said.

Both experts agreed the the electorate will often vote differently in provincial and federal elections.

The provincial result was driven by an anti-incumbent vote, according to Westlake, and the Liberals are the incumbents in this federal election.

Another reason is that the potential for a vote split among progressive voters, which wasn’t a factor in the provincial election, Westlake said. At the federal level, progressive voters may be split between the Liberals and the NDP, which makes winning seats more challenging.

“Pull all those three things together and you’ve got a federal election that’s more challenging for both the Liberals and the NDP,” Westlake said.

Overview

The 52 square kilometres of Regina-Wascana cover a southeast portion of Regina with a population of 89,063 people, according to Elections Canada.

The easiest way to understand the riding’s boundaries is to imagine standing at the intersection of Albert St. and Saskatchewan Dr. If you were to travel south on Albert St. and East on Saskatchewan Drive until you hit the edge of the City of Regina limits you’ll have covered Regina-Wascana.

Five candidates will be on the ballot in Regina-Wascana when votes are cast on April 28, according to Elections Canada: 

• Peter Bruce – People’s Party of Canada.
• Kimberly Epp – Green Party.
• Michael Kram – Conservative.
• Kaitlyn Stadnyk – NDP.
• Jeffery Walters – Liberal.