Harris, Trump locked in virtual dead heat in major swing states: Poll
Vice President Harris and former President Trump are virtually deadlocked in the major swing states that will play a deciding role in the election, according to new polling from The Hill and Emerson College Polling.
Trump narrowly leads Harris, 49 percent to 48 percent, in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania; while in Arizona he leads 49 percent to 47 percent. Trump’s leads over Harris in these states are within the plus-or-minus three-point margin of error.
The two candidates are deadlocked at 49 percent in Michigan and Wisconsin, while in Nevada Harris leads Trump 48 percent to 47 percent. The poll’s margin of error in Michigan is plus or minus 3.1 points and plus or minus three points in Wisconsin. In Nevada, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 points.
The latest polling is emblematic of how tight the race has become less than one month out from Election Day, though it did show some slight shifts in support.
Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina since the last Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted three weeks ago, but gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump, on the other hand, gained a point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina but lost a point in Georgia and Nevada. Harris’s support remained unchanged in Michigan and Nevada while Trump’s remained unchanged in Arizona and Wisconsin.
“With the race still deadlocked and just under four weeks to go, it remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error,” said Spencer KImball, executive director at Emerson College Polling.
In terms of favorability, Harris and Trump share somewhat similar ratings. In Georgia, 52 percent of voters said they have a favorable view of Harris while 48 percent said the same about Trump. Fifty-one percent of voters in Michigan and Wisconsin said they had a favorable view of Harris, while 48 percent said the same about Trump in Michigan and 49 percent in Wisconsin.
Fifty percent of voters said they had a favorable view of Harris in North Carolina and Nevada, while 52 percent said the same about Trump in North Carolina and 45 percent in Nevada. Forty-eight percent of voters in Pennsylvania and Arizona said they viewed Harris favorably, while 50 percent said the same about Trump in Pennsylvania and 49 percent in Arizona.
Further down the ballot, in statewide races in the swing states, the polling showed Democrats enjoying leads over their GOP opponents. In North Carolina’s governor’s race which has been rocked by a number of scandals surrounding Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, Democrat Josh Stein leads Robinson 50 percent to 34 percent.
In Michigan’s Senate race, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) leads her GOP opponent Mike Rogers 49 percent to 44 percent, while in Arizona’s Senate race Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leads Kari Lake 50 to 43 percent. In Nevada’s Senate race, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads Republican challenger Sam Brown 50 percent to 42 percent.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted Oct. 5-8, 2024. The sample size in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin was 1,000 likely voters, while in Michigan it was 950 likely voters. In Nevada, 900 likely voters were sampled.