7 most competitive Senate races in 2026
The race for key Senate contests in 2026 is already getting underway, with a few major potential candidates hinting they may join the race.
Republicans won back control of the Senate in the 2024 elections in early November, picking up four seats for a 53-47 majority in the body, the largest margin for either party since the 2018 midterms. Democrats will now seek to go back on offense to try to win the majority and place a check on the incoming Trump administration.
Here are the seven most competitive Senate races to watch for in 2026:
Maine
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has been a top target for Democrats for years as a Republican senator in a state that leans Democratic in statewide elections. Though they have been unable to pick her off in the past, she will almost certainly be the top target for Democrats in 2026.
Whether Collins runs may be key to the GOP’s chances of holding on to the seat. She told reporters shortly after Election Day that she plans to seek a sixth term in office, which would make her the longest-serving senator in Maine’s history.
As a more moderate senator who sometimes bucks the GOP in votes, Collins could face a primary challenge from the right, but she almost certainly is the strongest candidate Republicans could have in the general election.
Democrats were enthused about former state House Speaker Sara Gideon’s chances in 2020 only for her to lose by more than 8 points, making the race a tough challenge for whoever the party’s nominee will be.
North Carolina
Democrats have had their eye on North Carolina on the federal level since former President Obama carried the state during the 2008 election, but they’ve taken repeated disappointments, most recently losing the state this year to President-elect Trump by about 3 points.
They’ll hope to finally get over the finish line facing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a two-term incumbent. Like with Collins, Democrats had optimism about ousting Tillis in 2020, but their candidate fell short by less than 2 points.
Their chances may get a boost if outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D) joins the race after two terms in office as a popular governor. A source told NBC News that Cooper declined consideration to be the Democratic running mate this year because he is considering a Senate run.
But Tillis may be able to avoid a divisive and potentially damaging primary with firebrand Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) saying another run for office is “not on my radar.”
Georgia
The Georgia Senate races in 2020 tipped control of the Senate to the Democrats, and Republicans are eager to target Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) after the incumbent defeated then-Sen. David Perdue (R) four years ago.
Trump flipped the Peach State red again after it voted for President Biden in 2020, along with Democratic Sens. Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. Several prominent Georgia Republicans are rumored to be possible candidates.
Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) has indicated that he is considering a run, but he signaled to Punchbowl News last week that he may forgo running if Gov. Brian Kemp (R) gets into the race, as many Republicans hope for. Kemp will be coming to the end of his second term in 2026 and will be unable to seek a third.
Kemp won reelection comfortably in 2022 after a narrow win in 2018.
Michigan
Republicans have now won Michigan in two of the last three presidential races and nearly picked up a Senate seat there this year, with former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) losing to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) by 0.3 points.
Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) narrowly survived his reelection bid four years ago against now-Rep. John James (R-Mich.) by less than 2 points in a race seen as a possible upset opportunity for the GOP.
No major Republican has publicly suggested they’re thinking of challenging Peters, but the party will likely have their sights set on the seat, especially if they can nominate a strong opponent. A Republican has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since the 1990s.
Ohio
The Buckeye State will have an open Senate seat by January, with Vice President-elect JD Vance set to vacate his seat when he’s sworn in. GOP Gov. Mike DeWine will appoint a replacement, but they will have to run in a special election in 2026 for the rest of the term, which will last two more years after that.
DeWine hasn’t indicated whom he will appoint, but numerous possibilities have been floated among analysts, including state Sen. Matt Dolan, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and former state GOP Chair Jane Timken, all of whom are past Senate candidates.
Although the state has increasingly leaned red, Democrats may have a chance to take the seat particularly if longtime outgoing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) runs again after a loss to Republican Bernie Moreno this year. Brown has been popular and won three straight elections before his defeat this year.
He has said he’s “not ruling anything out” in response to questions about his possible candidacy. Former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who ran against Vance in 2022, also said he’s keeping his options open.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire has been on Republicans’ radar in recent years, but Democrats have prevailed there in federal elections since 2016, though by small margins.
This could put the race against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) in discussion in two years even if it is a more difficult climb for the GOP than Georgia or Michigan.
Outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) would likely be seen as the strongest possible candidate, as he is overwhelmingly popular, but he has said he isn’t interested in running. Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) has said he’s considering a run, which would be his second try against Shaheen after losing to her in 2014.
Shaheen is a heavyweight in New Hampshire, having served in the Senate for three terms after six years as governor, the first female governor in the state’s history.
Texas
Democrats have been seriously talking about flipping Texas blue since at least 2018, though each of the candidates put up since then have fallen short, including Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) this year.
Sen. John Cornyn (R) is running for his fifth term but may face a serious primary challenge from other Texas Republicans, including state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democrats may hope a more controversial nominee like Paxton grants a better chance of flipping the seat.
But Texas will still be at least a target for Democrats’ most ideal scenario regardless of the Republican nominee.