2025 Kentucky Derby horses, futures, date, odds, preview: Expert who hit 11 Derby-Oaks Doubles discloses picks

April 22, 2025 WOL

The 2025 Kentucky Derby post draw is on Saturday, which will spark the annual debate regarding which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to bet on. Mystik Dan won in a photo finish last year, becoming the first Kentucky Derby horse to win from post No. 3 since 1998. Post Nos. 5 and 20 have the best win percentage (10.5% each) historically, but neither gate produced a top-five horse last year. Historical data can only go so far when it comes to building a 2025 Kentucky Derby betting strategy, though, for the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs.

2025 Kentucky Derby trainers and 2025 Kentucky Derby jockeys are important to consider before placing 2025 Kentucky Derby bets. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, followed by Sandman (8-1) and Sovereignty (8-1). Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez, even though he’s one of the favorites. In fact, Demling says Rodriguez doesn’t even hit the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. The Bob Baffert-trained horse was not able to break through early this year, finishing second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and third in the San Felipe Stakes. However, he picked up an impressive victory in the Wood Memorial earlier this month in his first start without blinkers.

Wood Memorial winners tend to struggle in the Kentucky Derby, as the best finish by a Wood winner in the Derby since 2013 was Tactius, who was third in 2019. The last horse to pull off the double was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and Rodriguez is considered by many to be a second stringer from Baffert’s barn. None of his Wood Memorial competitors were graded winners, which suggests that his price for the Derby might be too short. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025. No Japanese horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby, but they’ve come closer in recent years, including Forever Young becoming the first Japanese horse to finish in the top three at a Kentucky Derby after placing third last year. Luxor Cafe is coming off a win at the Fukuryu Stakes on March 29, where he showcased his speed and late burst to run away with a clear victory. Luxor Cafe was the favorite entering that race and proved why, leaving no doubt he’s a worthy Kentucky Derby contender.

The Fukuryu Stakes runs at 1 1/8 miles and that’s the same distance as the top Kentucky Derby prep races in America. Demling sees similarities to Luxor Cafe’s father, American Pharoah, in the 3-year-old’s end of the Fukuryu Stakes run. The 2015 Triple Crown winner used a late burst to win his Kentucky Derby race and at 15-1 odds, Demling sees value in Luxor Cafe at the Kentucky Derby 10 years later. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.